Keys to Daily Fantasy success for NFL Wild Card games-FantasyTurnUp.Com

Key 1: Pay attention to the projected total over/under total.

NFL Lines Wild Card Playoffs - NFL Football Line
Wild Card Weekend Playoff Games
NFL Game Lines 1/3 - 1/4, 2015

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
1/3 8:15 ET	At Pittsburgh	-3	Baltimore	45
1/3 4:35 ET	At Carolina	-6.5	Arizona	38
1/4 4:40 ET	At Dallas	-6.5	Detroit	48
1/4 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-3.5	Cincinnati	49

Highest Over/Under Total (I.E most projected points/touchdowns):

You most likely will want to choose top stars playing in the following games, or at least have a kicker playing for 1 of the following teams in order to increase your likelihood of capturing points from the top 2 highest projected scoring games.

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
1/4 4:40 ET	At Dallas	-6.5	Detroit	48
1/4 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-3.5	Cincinnati	49

Advice: Take Colts Kicker Adam Vinatieri or at least have exposure to one colt player.

Lowest Over/Under: (Least projected points/touchdowns):

You most likely will want to avoid top stars playing in the following games, or at least limit the number of combined offensive players on the following teams below since these games are projected to have the fewest number of touchdowns.  Alternatively, you may want to consider choosing your defense from one of the below games since these games are projected to be lower scoring. 

Date & Time		Favorite	Line			Underdog		Total
1/3 8:15 ET	At Pittsburgh			-3	Baltimore		45
1/3 4:35 ET	At Carolina			-6.5	Arizona		38

Advice: These projected over/under numbers indicate that you should probably be taking one of the above Defenses, while you should limit the total number of Arizona offensive Players/Kickers given their low projected amount of offensive output.

Most Undervalued Daily Fantasy Players:

Key 2: Choose 2 undervalued players in your lineup for high risk/reward.

Ryan Lindley ($6700): Lindley is the only true value option play this weekend (given the reality that all other QB are $7800 and up). Last week Lindley threw for 316 yards and 2 TD (both to Michael Floyd). He did throw three picks, however SF leads the league in interceptions (23). It will be crucial for Lindley to be a great game manager and not make mistakes. With inexperienced RB’s beside Lindley, the Cardinals won't have the luxury of a super run dominant game plan. For the Cardinals to truly become  a team of destiny despite all of the detrimental injuries they’ve suffered, Ryan Lindley needs to have an incredibly efficient game.

Dan Herron ($5400): Dan Herron is expected to be the lead back again for the Colts against a Bengals defense that allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RB this year. Being the lead back in Indianapolis is not the same as it is elsewhere. Herron has a season high of 12 carries for 80 yards. He's added about three receptions for 30 yards every week to his rushing yardage, which has been low despite averaging 4.5 ypc. I feel like Dan Herron has been efficient on every occasion and the colts have under-utilized him, which may be the result of protecting him for the playoffs or keeping their secret unknown weapon a secret. Nonetheless, the fact that he is priced below some other teams back-up running backs gives credence to our belief that Dan Herron is a great play for his value.

Other RB options: Reggie Bush is cheap given early season expectations, but it could be for a very good reason since he very may well still be affected by his lingering injury, or worse he’s simply a nostalgic ageing veteran. Bush had an impressive game vs (a poor) Chicago team, scoring and matching a season high six receptions, then went back to below average in the finale. He's averaging just 3.9 ypc and is seemingly an afterthought in the Detroit offense with Joique Bell playing well. DeAngelo Williams is expected to play this weekend vs Arizona's 4th best run defense, which only means that he’ll have the opportunity to Vulture carries from Jonathan Stewart. Kerwynn Williams ($5200) is also someone to consider since he’s been impressive when he gets the work, averaging 4.6 ypc, though not yet scoring. He should see the bulk of the carries, while not being used as a threat in the passing game at all.

Martavis BryantL ($5600): Martavis Bryant is a good play since he has the real potential to put up huge WR1 receiver numbers. However, there is risk since Antonio Brown will draw the majority of targets and his number have been sporadically boom and bust all year. What we like most about Martavis Bryant  is that he could be used as a both a vertical and horizontal weapon this week with the injury to bell. This means he could potentially get 5+ carries and could also draw 2-3 screen opportunities in situations that that would otherwise go to Bell. Scoring 8 TDs on 26 receptions (48 targets). According to PFF, that's 0.64 fantasy points per opportunity. Bryant is 6'4" and fast and Baltimore's secondary had no answer for him in the end zone the last time they played as Bryant scored 2 TDs on three receptions for 44 yards. The Ravens give up the 5th most points to WR, and PFF rates them in the bottom half of the league in pass coverage.

Other WR options: Donte Moncrief ($5200) always has the potential to have a huge breakout game with Luck at the Helm.  Cole Beasley ($5600) saw nine targets last week, hauling in 6/57. Nine was his season high, but he's been steadily seeing around five targets a week. However, if you’re looking for an undervalued Cowboys receiver Terrance Williams may be the better choice representing more potential upside.

Tight End

Heath Miller ($5000): Miller finished the season as the 11th best PPR TE, unowned in most season long fantasy leagues and rarely seen in DFS lineups. The Ravens are middle of the pack when it comes to points allowed to TE. Miller has seen anywhere between 1-14 targets this season, but typically gets 5-7 per game. The key is that Heath Miller will become more of a weapon in short yardage and goal line situations that would otherwise be run plays designed for Bell.

Ryan Hewitt ($4500) If Jermaine Gresham does sit, Ryan Hewitt could be an intriguing option as the most undervalued tight end this week since Andy Dalton may be forced to target the ex-Stanford player given the extent of injuries plaguing all of his receivers.

Weather conditions to consider:

The ONLY game in which weather conditions WILL likely play a major factor is between the Steelers and Ravens. Adding to the problems of rain, Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys. The stadium, which opened in 2001, also hosts University of Pittsburgh and high school playoff games. The field tends to get easily torn up and often must be resodded. Bad weather is expected to make the conditions even sloppier. The forecast calls for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.

Key 3: Start at least 1 player who will see more targets due to primary starter injuries.

NFL wildcard game Key Injury Reports:

Le'Veon Bell – Has been officially ruled out, however given the nature of the injury (hyperextended knee) and the fact that he’ll have all off-season to recover if the Steelers loose we still recommend checking in to see if Le'Veon Bell suits up and attempts to warm-up pre-game as anything reported by Adam Schefter has been notoriously wrong ALL YEAR. With Bell out this weekend, ESPN.com notes that Josh Harris is in line to start in his place, with Dri Archer and the recently-signed Ben Tate, to a lesser degree, also in the mix for touches in the Steelers' backfield on Saturday.

After bell left last week’s game against the Bengals, Harris wasn't targeted in the passing game, but did finish with five carries for seven yards. Archer had 2 catches for 19 yards and 1 carry for -1 yards. While newly signed Ben Tate could potentially Vulture carries from both. However, it's not entirely clear how the workload would be divided. Archer's top-notch speed makes him a threat as a receiver, but his lack of size raises questions about both pass-blocking and running between the tackles. Thus, Archer will likely be used as a 3^rd down back with Harris getting more early down carries, however the Steelers will likely roll with the hot hand so it is really a crap shoot as to the projected carries for each back.  

Le'Veon Bell Injury Advice: This uncertainty should make many daily fantasy players hesitant to roll with any of the Steelers back-up running backs, however what should really make you want to stay away is that the unproven running backs still have a (Fan Duel Daily Fantasy Value) higher than more proven running backs like the Colts Dan Herron. This means any potential upside has already been factored into their price making the Steelers RB back-ups even more unattractive. We believe the best way to take advantage of the Le'Veon Bell injury from a valuation perspective is by starting Martavis Bryant who the Steelers may have to creatively make a larger part of their Offense and may even get 5+ carries, or rolling with Steelers Tight End Heath Miller who will be targeted in short yardage and goal line situations that would otherwise be designed run plays for Bell.  

Other Notable Injuries:

Trent Richardson – Probable : While only having a minor illness, Trent Richardson has had a dismal year meaning the Colts will have to lean on Dan Herron even more who we believe to be one of the most undervalued backs coming into this week.

A.J. Green – Questionable: (concussion) We believe that A.J Green will play come game time, however given the culmination of other injuries he has suffered over the past few weeks combined with a concussion if he does suit up he’ll probably be used in more of a decoy role taking away his over ability to go over the middle which has historically made him so dangerous.

Jermaine Gresham – Questionable: With a lingering back injury suffered from last week still bothering Jermaine Gresham, we believe he’ll play however will not be 100%. We also tend to believe that A.J Green has been banged up the past couple of weeks and the Bengals are covering up the full extent of his injuries to prevent more men being stacked in the box. Overall we believe that the fact that the Bengals top receiving threats are banged up, but still on the field should lead to more credence to starting Jeremy Hill, or if the numbers pencil out plugging in Mohamed Sanu.

All Injury Reports:

Arizona Cardinals: OUT: Drew Stanton (knee) QB. QUESTIONABLE: Jonathan Cooper (wrist, knee) G; Dan Williams (foot) DT. PROBABLE; Calais Campbell (hip) DE; Larry Foote (knee) LB; Tyrann Mathieu (thumb, hip) S; Frostee Rucker (ankle) DT; Lyle Sendlein (back) C. If Dan Williams can't play it would be another blow to a banged-up defense that has fallen off sharply down the stretch.

Carolina Panthers: DOUBTFUL: Thomas DeCoud (hamstring) S. QUESTIONABLE: A.J. Klein (ankle) LB. PROBABLE: Derek Anderson (illness) QB; Charles Johnson (not injury related) DE; Fernando Velasco (not injury related) G; DeAngelo Williams (hand) RB.Williams will play. We still think Jonathan Stewart should get the overwhelming majority of the carries.

Baltimore Ravens: OUT: Eugene Monroe (ankle) OT; Timmy Jernigan (foot/ankle) DT; Arthur Brown (thigh) LB. PROBABLE: Owen Daniels (non injury related) TE; Chris Canty (thigh/ankle) DE. The Ravens' offensive line has been a problem the past few weeks.

Pittsburgh Steelers: OUT: Le'Veon Bell (knee) RB. PROBABLE: Heath Miller (NIR) TE; Troy Polamalu (knee) S; Ben Roethlisberger (NIR) QB; Ike Taylor (shoulder/forearm) CB; James Harrison (illness) LB; Mike Adams (illness) T; Steve McLendon (shoulder) DT; Michael Palmer (groin) TE. The Steelers will turn to rookie running back Josh Harris with Bell out. It's about as healthy as the Steelers defense has been in months.

Cincinnati Bengals: OUT: Dane Sanzenbacher (concussion) WR; James Wright (knee) WR. DOUBTFUL: A.J. Green (concussion) WR. QUESTIONABLE: Jermaine Gresham (back) TE; Cedric Peerman (concussion, shoulder) RB. Not looking good for Green, which would be a huge blow for the Bengals.

Indianapolis Colts: OUT: Hugh Thornton (shoulder) G. DOUBTFUL: A.Q. Shipley (ankle) C. QUESTIONABLE: Trent Richardson (illness) RB. PROBABLE: Dwayne Allen (knee) TE; Joshua Cribbs (not injury related) WR; Jerrell Freeman (hamstring) LB; Joe Reitz (ankle) G; Erik Walden (knee) LB; Reggie Wayne (groin) WR; Bjoern Werner (shoulder) LB. The Colts' O-line is banged up, but having Allen and Wayne should help Andrew Luck.

Dallas Cowboys: DOUBTFUL: Doug Free (Ankle) OT. QUESTIONABLE: Tyrone Crawford (illness) DT; Anthony Hitchens (ankle) LB. PROBABLE: DeMarco Murray (hand) RB; Tony Romo (back) QB; Bruce Carter (knee) LB; Nick Hayden (shoulder) DT; Zack Martin (ankle) G. With Henry Melton already out, the Cowboys need Crawford healthy along the D-line.

Detroit Lions: OUT: Larry Warford (knee) G. DOUBTFUL: Nick Fairley (knee) DT. PROBABLE: Ezekiel Ansah (toe) DE; Calvin Johnson (ankle) WR.

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