NFL Championship Daily Fantasy Undervalued picks
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Sunday, January 18, 2015
Saturday, January 10, 2015
NFL Division Round Daily Fantasy Advice FantasyTurnUp.Com
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Given that this is one of the last major weeks for NFL Daily Fantasy Football, we are posting are price/points ratio breakdown for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Take a look at our breakdown, and go with the cheapest players.
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Keys to Daily Fantasy success for NFL Wild Card games-FantasyTurnUp.Com
Key
1: Pay attention to the projected total over/under total.
NFL
Lines Wild Card Playoffs - NFL Football Line
Wild Card Weekend Playoff Games
NFL Game Lines 1/3 - 1/4, 2015
Wild Card Weekend Playoff Games
NFL Game Lines 1/3 - 1/4, 2015
Date & Time
|
Favorite
|
Line
|
Underdog
|
Total
|
1/3 8:15 ET
|
At Pittsburgh
|
-3
|
Baltimore
|
45
|
1/3 4:35 ET
|
At Carolina
|
-6.5
|
Arizona
|
38
|
1/4 4:40 ET
|
At Dallas
|
-6.5
|
Detroit
|
48
|
1/4 1:00 ET
|
At Indianapolis
|
-3.5
|
Cincinnati
|
49
|
Highest
Over/Under Total (I.E most projected points/touchdowns):
You most likely will want to choose top stars playing in the
following games, or at least have a kicker playing for 1 of the following teams
in order to increase your likelihood of capturing points from the top 2 highest
projected scoring games.
Date & Time
|
Favorite
|
Line
|
Underdog
|
Total
|
1/4 4:40 ET
|
At Dallas
|
-6.5
|
Detroit
|
48
|
1/4 1:00 ET
|
At Indianapolis
|
-3.5
|
Cincinnati
|
49
|
Advice:
Take Colts Kicker Adam Vinatieri or at least have exposure to one colt player.
Lowest
Over/Under: (Least projected points/touchdowns):
You most likely will want to avoid top stars playing in the
following games, or at least limit the number of combined offensive players on
the following teams below since these games are projected to have the fewest
number of touchdowns. Alternatively, you
may want to consider choosing your defense from one of the below games since
these games are projected to be lower scoring.
Date
& Time
|
Favorite
|
Line
|
Underdog
|
Total
|
|||||
1/3 8:15 ET
|
At Pittsburgh
|
-3
|
Baltimore
|
45
|
|||||
1/3 4:35 ET
|
At Carolina
|
-6.5
|
Arizona
|
38
|
|||||
Advice:
These projected over/under numbers indicate that you should probably be taking
one of the above Defenses, while you should limit the total number of Arizona
offensive Players/Kickers given their low projected amount of offensive output.
Most
Undervalued Daily Fantasy Players:
Key 2: Choose 2 undervalued players in your lineup for high risk/reward.
Ryan Lindley
($6700): Lindley is the only true value
option play this weekend (given the reality that all other QB are $7800 and
up). Last week Lindley threw for 316 yards and 2 TD (both to Michael Floyd). He
did throw three picks, however SF leads the league in interceptions (23). It
will be crucial for Lindley to be a great game manager and not make mistakes.
With inexperienced RB’s beside Lindley, the Cardinals won't have the luxury of a
super run dominant game plan. For the Cardinals to truly become a team of destiny despite all of the detrimental
injuries they’ve suffered, Ryan Lindley needs to have an incredibly efficient
game.
Dan Herron
($5400): Dan Herron is expected to be the
lead back again for the Colts against a Bengals defense that allowed the 5th
most fantasy points to RB this year. Being the lead back in Indianapolis is not
the same as it is elsewhere. Herron has a season high of 12 carries for 80
yards. He's added about three receptions for 30 yards every week to his rushing
yardage, which has been low despite averaging 4.5 ypc. I feel like Dan Herron
has been efficient on every occasion and the colts have under-utilized him,
which may be the result of protecting him for the playoffs or keeping their
secret unknown weapon a secret. Nonetheless, the fact that he is priced below
some other teams back-up running backs gives credence to our belief that Dan
Herron is a great play for his value.
Other RB options: Reggie Bush is cheap given early season expectations, but
it could be for a very good reason since he very may well still be affected by
his lingering injury, or worse he’s simply a nostalgic ageing veteran. Bush had
an impressive game vs (a poor) Chicago team, scoring and matching a season high
six receptions, then went back to below average in the finale. He's averaging
just 3.9 ypc and is seemingly an afterthought in the Detroit offense with
Joique Bell playing well. DeAngelo Williams is expected to play this weekend vs
Arizona's 4th best run defense, which only means that he’ll have the opportunity
to Vulture carries from Jonathan Stewart. Kerwynn Williams ($5200) is also
someone to consider since he’s been impressive when he gets the work, averaging
4.6 ypc, though not yet scoring. He should see the bulk of the carries, while
not being used as a threat in the passing game at all.
Martavis
BryantL ($5600): Martavis Bryant is a good
play since he has the real potential to put up huge WR1 receiver numbers.
However, there is risk since Antonio Brown will draw the majority of targets
and his number have been sporadically boom and bust all year. What we like most
about Martavis Bryant is that he could
be used as a both a vertical and horizontal weapon this week with the injury to
bell. This means he could potentially get 5+ carries and could also draw 2-3
screen opportunities in situations that that would otherwise go to Bell. Scoring
8 TDs on 26 receptions (48 targets). According to PFF, that's 0.64 fantasy
points per opportunity. Bryant is 6'4" and fast and Baltimore's secondary
had no answer for him in the end zone the last time they played as Bryant
scored 2 TDs on three receptions for 44 yards. The Ravens give up the 5th most
points to WR, and PFF rates them in the bottom half of the league in pass coverage.
Other WR options: Donte Moncrief ($5200) always has the potential to have a
huge breakout game with Luck at the Helm. Cole Beasley ($5600) saw nine targets last
week, hauling in 6/57. Nine was his season high, but he's been steadily seeing
around five targets a week. However, if you’re looking for an undervalued
Cowboys receiver Terrance Williams may be the better choice representing more
potential upside.
Tight End
Heath
Miller ($5000): Miller finished the season
as the 11th best PPR TE, unowned in most season long fantasy leagues and rarely
seen in DFS lineups. The Ravens are middle of the pack when it comes to points
allowed to TE. Miller has seen anywhere between 1-14 targets this season, but
typically gets 5-7 per game. The key is that Heath Miller will become more of a
weapon in short yardage and goal line situations that would otherwise be run
plays designed for Bell.
Ryan
Hewitt ($4500) If Jermaine Gresham does sit, Ryan
Hewitt could be an intriguing option as the most undervalued tight end this
week since Andy Dalton may be forced to target the ex-Stanford player given the
extent of injuries plaguing all of his receivers.
Weather
conditions to consider:
The ONLY game in which weather conditions WILL likely play a
major factor is between the Steelers and Ravens. Adding to the problems of
rain, Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the
two most recent player surveys. The stadium, which opened in 2001, also hosts
University of Pittsburgh and high school playoff games. The field tends to get
easily torn up and often must be resodded. Bad weather is expected to make the
conditions even sloppier. The forecast calls for 100 percent chance of rain,
and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.
Key 3: Start at least 1 player who will see more targets due to primary starter injuries.
NFL
wildcard game Key Injury Reports:
Le'Veon
Bell – Has been officially ruled out,
however given the nature of the injury (hyperextended knee) and the fact that he’ll
have all off-season to recover if the Steelers loose we still recommend checking
in to see if Le'Veon Bell suits up and attempts to warm-up pre-game as anything
reported by Adam Schefter has been notoriously wrong ALL YEAR. With Bell out
this weekend, ESPN.com notes that Josh Harris is in line to start in his place,
with Dri Archer and the recently-signed Ben Tate, to a lesser degree, also in
the mix for touches in the Steelers' backfield on Saturday.
After bell left last week’s game against the Bengals, Harris
wasn't targeted in the passing game, but did finish with five carries for seven
yards. Archer had 2 catches for 19 yards and 1 carry for -1 yards. While newly
signed Ben Tate could potentially Vulture carries from both. However, it's not
entirely clear how the workload would be divided. Archer's top-notch speed
makes him a threat as a receiver, but his lack of size raises questions about
both pass-blocking and running between the tackles. Thus, Archer will likely be
used as a 3rd down back with Harris getting more early down carries,
however the Steelers will likely roll with the hot hand so it is really a crap
shoot as to the projected carries for each back.
Le'Veon
Bell Injury Advice: This uncertainty
should make many daily fantasy players hesitant to roll with any of the Steelers
back-up running backs, however what should really make you want to stay away is
that the unproven running backs still have a (Fan Duel Daily Fantasy Value)
higher than more proven running backs like the Colts Dan Herron. This means any
potential upside has already been factored into their price making the Steelers
RB back-ups even more unattractive. We believe the best way to take advantage
of the Le'Veon Bell injury from a valuation
perspective is by starting Martavis Bryant who the Steelers may have to
creatively make a larger part of their Offense and may even get 5+ carries, or
rolling with Steelers Tight End Heath Miller who will be targeted in short
yardage and goal line situations that would otherwise be designed run plays for
Bell.
Other
Notable Injuries:
Trent
Richardson – Probable : While only
having a minor illness, Trent Richardson has had a dismal year meaning the
Colts will have to lean on Dan Herron even more who we believe to be one of the
most undervalued backs coming into this week.
A.J. Green
– Questionable: (concussion) We believe that A.J
Green will play come game time, however given the culmination of other injuries
he has suffered over the past few weeks combined with a concussion if he does
suit up he’ll probably be used in more of a decoy role taking away his over ability
to go over the middle which has historically made him so dangerous.
Jermaine
Gresham – Questionable: With a
lingering back injury suffered from last week still bothering Jermaine Gresham,
we believe he’ll play however will not be 100%. We also tend to believe that
A.J Green has been banged up the past couple of weeks and the Bengals are
covering up the full extent of his injuries to prevent more men being stacked
in the box. Overall we believe that the fact that the Bengals top receiving threats
are banged up, but still on the field should lead to more credence to starting
Jeremy Hill, or if the numbers pencil out plugging in Mohamed Sanu.
All Injury
Reports:
Arizona Cardinals: OUT: Drew Stanton (knee) QB.
QUESTIONABLE: Jonathan Cooper (wrist, knee) G; Dan Williams (foot) DT.
PROBABLE; Calais Campbell (hip) DE; Larry Foote (knee) LB; Tyrann Mathieu
(thumb, hip) S; Frostee Rucker (ankle) DT; Lyle Sendlein (back) C. If Dan
Williams can't play it would be another blow to a banged-up defense that has
fallen off sharply down the stretch.
Carolina Panthers: DOUBTFUL: Thomas DeCoud (hamstring) S.
QUESTIONABLE: A.J. Klein (ankle) LB. PROBABLE: Derek Anderson (illness) QB;
Charles Johnson (not injury related) DE; Fernando Velasco (not injury related) G;
DeAngelo Williams (hand) RB.Williams will play. We still think Jonathan Stewart
should get the overwhelming majority of the carries.
Baltimore Ravens: OUT: Eugene Monroe (ankle) OT; Timmy
Jernigan (foot/ankle) DT; Arthur Brown (thigh) LB. PROBABLE: Owen Daniels (non
injury related) TE; Chris Canty (thigh/ankle) DE. The Ravens' offensive line
has been a problem the past few weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers: OUT: Le'Veon Bell (knee) RB. PROBABLE:
Heath Miller (NIR) TE; Troy Polamalu (knee) S; Ben Roethlisberger (NIR) QB; Ike
Taylor (shoulder/forearm) CB; James Harrison (illness) LB; Mike Adams (illness)
T; Steve McLendon (shoulder) DT; Michael Palmer (groin) TE. The Steelers will
turn to rookie running back Josh Harris with Bell out. It's about as healthy as
the Steelers defense has been in months.
Cincinnati Bengals: OUT: Dane Sanzenbacher (concussion) WR;
James Wright (knee) WR. DOUBTFUL: A.J. Green (concussion) WR. QUESTIONABLE:
Jermaine Gresham (back) TE; Cedric Peerman (concussion, shoulder) RB. Not
looking good for Green, which would be a huge blow for the Bengals.
Indianapolis Colts: OUT: Hugh Thornton (shoulder) G.
DOUBTFUL: A.Q. Shipley (ankle) C. QUESTIONABLE: Trent Richardson (illness) RB.
PROBABLE: Dwayne Allen (knee) TE; Joshua Cribbs (not injury related) WR;
Jerrell Freeman (hamstring) LB; Joe Reitz (ankle) G; Erik Walden (knee) LB;
Reggie Wayne (groin) WR; Bjoern Werner (shoulder) LB. The Colts' O-line is
banged up, but having Allen and Wayne should help Andrew Luck.
Dallas Cowboys: DOUBTFUL: Doug Free (Ankle) OT.
QUESTIONABLE: Tyrone Crawford (illness) DT; Anthony Hitchens (ankle) LB.
PROBABLE: DeMarco Murray (hand) RB; Tony Romo (back) QB; Bruce Carter (knee)
LB; Nick Hayden (shoulder) DT; Zack Martin (ankle) G. With Henry Melton already
out, the Cowboys need Crawford healthy along the D-line.
Detroit Lions: OUT: Larry Warford (knee) G. DOUBTFUL: Nick
Fairley (knee) DT. PROBABLE: Ezekiel Ansah (toe) DE; Calvin Johnson (ankle) WR.
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